Really Rocket Science

Orbital was awarded a contract for the initial development of an advanced space technology for the Department of Defense:

Orbital Sciences Corporation (NYSE: ORB), a world leader in smaller-sized civil government and national security satellites, announced today that it has been selected by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Arlington, VA, to develop a Phase 1 concept for System F6 (Future Fast, Flexible, Fractionated, Free-Flying Spacecraft united by Information eXchange). DARPA is the central research and development organization for the Department of Defense (DoD).

They could only come up with six "F’s"? Come on.

To simplify (sort-of), the concept is called "fractionated spacecraft," which is described in this 2006 paper (pdf):

We note that the everlarger monolithic spacecraft of today are notoriously unresponsive. We then suggest a novel architectural paradigm, which we call fractionated spacecraft, whereby a satellite is decomposed into a set of similar or dissimilar component modules which interact wirelessly while in cluster orbits.

How is fractionated spacecraft more responsive than their larger, monolithic mainstays? (link)

According to DARPA such a virtual satellite effectively constitutes a "bus in the sky" – wherein customers need only provide and deploy a payload module suited to their immediate mission need, with the supporting features supplied by a global network of infrastructure modules already resident on-orbit and at critical ground locations. In addition, there can be sharing of resources between various "spacecraft" that are within sufficient range for communication.DARPA said the within the F6 network all subsystems and payloads can be treated like a uniquely addressable computing peripheral or network device.

Orbital is pretty excited:

“F6 has the potential to be a game-changing event in the history of military space systems in the same way that the internet revolutionized data communications,” stated Mr. Gregg Burgess, Orbital’s Vice President for National Security Systems in the Advanced Programs Group. “DARPA and Orbital have had a long and productive partnership leading to major innovations such as the Pegasus launch vehicle and numerous advanced small satellites. System F6 could transform today’s military space architecture to create a truly networked system of systems in space.”

Very interesting news from California this morning about Space Systems/Loral and Northrop Grumman’s Space Technology division getting together to go after U.S. government business. Building spacecraft for fully-funded government projects can be more profitable than going after commercial projects. Sounds like a simple agreement:

"The agreement with Northrop Grumman will allow SS/L to cost-effectively add capacity to address increased near-term commercial satellite opportunities," said Pat DeWitt, chief executive officer, Space Systems/Loral. "The agreement will also streamline the process for our companies to collaborate on providing the world’s best satellites for both civil and defense applications."

"The resulting strategic agreement will be important to increasing our competitiveness. These initiatives will present win-win opportunities for both companies and our U.S. government customers," said Alexis Livanos, corporate vice president and president of the company’s Space Technology sector. "For some of our mission areas, we believe that assured access to SS/L’s 1300 bus and bus subsystems would improve our cost and delivery schedule competitiveness. In addition, hosted payloads hold the promise of providing us greater ability and flexibility to rapidly respond to our government customers’ evolving needs."

Some of these new opportunities included "hosted payloads" where specialized instruments or entire subsystems can be added on to a satellite bus whose primary mission is paying most of the build cost. Given the importance of the role space plays in today’s C4ISR systems (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance), and the expected ends-of-life of the spacecraft currently in orbit, we’ll need a bunch of new launches in the short term. Factor in programs being behind schedule — with some going way over budget —  and you might conclude we have a problem, Houston. Intelsat General is going after this market, too.

Northrop Grumman is involved in a new moon mission for NASA, the LCROSS (Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite):

In a big boost to Virginia’s aeronautical and space industries (and economy), NASA has awarded a contract to Northern Virginia’s Orbital Sciences Corporation to resupply the International Space Station.

The federal space agency on Tuesday said it will provide Orbital Sciences Corp. as much as $170 million to demonstrate its capability to resupply the space station.

Orbital officials say they plan to team with NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility and the state’s Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport to demonstrate a new launch rocket in late 2010. If they succeed, the Eastern Shore could become a key outpost for commercial space operations, bringing jobs and investment to the region.

"This is a real opportunity to see that happen," said Billie Reed, executive director of the Virginia Commercial Spaceflight Authority and head of the spaceport, known as MARS. "This is significant."

Since December 2006, the fledging spaceport has hosted two successful launches into low-Earth orbit for Pentagon customers, and both featured a Minotaur I rocket developed by Orbital.

This isn’t just a boom for Orbital; it could mean significant investment in Virginia’s space industry and its Wallops infrastructure:

To handle cargo missions to the space station, Orbital is developing a much bigger rocket, called the Taurus II. It would be the largest rocket ever launched from Wallops, said Barry Beneski, an Orbital spokesman.

Because of that, the launch facilities at MARS would have to be upgraded to accommodate the larger vehicle. If those improvements aren’t made, Orbital would have to look elsewhere, probably in Florida, for a launch site, Beneski said.

"We’re supporters of Wallops, and we’re supporters of developing the space industry in Virginia," Beneski said, "but infrastructure development is really the key."

Reed said state leaders plan to meet with Orbital executives this week to discuss the needs. "It’s not a show-stopper," he said, adding that the spaceflight authority is empowered to issue bonds to finance improvements. "We can find ways to do this."

NASA Wallops provides mission control and logistics support to MARS. The Eastern Shore launch site is considered ideal. Its latitude is aligned to the space station’s orbit, reducing fuel expenses, and rockets quickly travel over the ocean, limiting risks to populated areas.

"This shows the industry that what we have to offer here is real," said Keith Koehler, spokesman for the flight facility. "We’re excited."

Besides NASA’s investment, Orbital plans to pitch in $150 million of company money to the effort, known as COTS, for commercial orbital transportation services. NASA’s aim is to contract with private aerospace companies to resupply the station after the agency retires the space shuttle program in 2010.

Orbital is still flying high after the announcement. Shares are up more than 50 cents and profit is expected to rise by as much as 25 percent.

We’ve been following this story for a few weeks now, and it is astounding how much attention has been paid to it. A top-secret U.S. observation satellite that’s out of control is set to be shot out of the sky precisely so it brings no harm to the public. Over the Pacific Ocean, for example, would be a good location. Now the U.S. Navy has issued a "notice to airmen," signaling just that:

02/062 (A0038/08) – AIRSPACE CARF NR. 90 ON EVELYN STATIONARY RESERVATION WITHIN AN AREA BNDD BY 3145N 17012W 2824N 16642W 2352N 16317W 1909N 16129W 1241N 16129W 1239N 16532W 1842N 17057W 2031N 17230W 2703N 17206W SFC-UNL. 21 FEB 02:30 2008 UNTIL 21 FEB 05:00 2008. CREATED: 18 FEB 12:51 2008

The Register explains what this means:

A "CARF" (Central Altitude Reservation Function) designation indicates a NOTAM intended to keep commercial and private flights clear of military operations, and SFC-UNL means the height band of this warning zone reaches from the surface to "unlimited" altitude – in other words all the way into space. The UTC time referred to is the same as UK time, so the zone exists from 0230 to 0500 on Thursday morning for British readers.

As will be evident, the barred area is a cool 1,400 miles long and nearly 700 miles wide at the surface, giving the US Navy plenty of elbow room to fire their interceptor missiles up into the descending spacecraft’s path.

Reports have it that three US Aegis air-defence warships, the cruiser Lake Erie and the destroyers Decatur and Russell, will be waiting for the satellite west of Hawaii. Each ship carries a specially modified Standard SM-3 interceptor, originally intended for defence against lower-flying ballistic missile warheads. The three interceptors are on separate ships in case of a technical issue with the Aegis radar and fire-control system.

As it passes over the firing area, the satellite will be approximately 3,000 miles and ten minutes out from the western coast of Canada, the next land it will pass over. The satellite has much more mass than the soaring "exo-atmospheric kill vehicle" it will smack into, so this gives some idea of the onward track the wreckage might follow in the event of a hit.

Google Earth kmz file by Alan Clegg is worth a look.

What can we expect on Thursday? Take a look at this Japanese test from last December:

Wow, big fiber cut yesterday, about a year after the one near Taiwan. If you’re in the Middle East, you know: Internet service is disrupted in Egypt, the Gulf Region and to India, too:

Egypt’s Telecommunications Ministry said a communications cable in the Mediterranean was cut, disrupting 70 percent of the country’s Internet network.

The ministry said in a statement it was not known how the cable was cut but that services would probably take several days to return to normal.

India reported serious disruptions to its services and one Indian Internet service provider linked the problem to the Egyptian outage.

Seems the cut was somewhere between Palermo, Sicily, and Alexandria, Egypt. That sounds like the South East Asia-Middle East-West Europe 4 (SEA-ME-WE 4) cable, which has 17 landing points connected:

1. Marseilles, France
2. Annaba, Algeria
3. Bizerte, Tunisia
4. Palermo, Italy
5. Alexandria, Egypt
6. Cairo, Egypt (overland)
7. Suez, Egypt (overland/return to submarine)
8. Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
9. Fujairah, United Arab Emirates
10. Karachi, Pakistan
11. Mumbai, India
12. Colombo, Sri Lanka
13. Chennai, India
14. Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh
15. Satun, Thailand
16. Melaka/Malacca, Malaysia
17. Tuas, Singapore

Our friends at SES NEW SKIES probably had their phones ringing off the hook yesterday. Best remedy for fiber cuts is a satcom backup. That’s the "secret sauce" in a well-run network.

The Keck Interferometer — two linked observatories in Hawaii (above, with Pu’u Poliahu in the background), located on the highest point in the Pacific — give astronomers a new view of novae:

First results from a new NASA-funded scientific instrument at the W. M. Keck Observatory at Mauna Kea, Hawaii, are helping scientists overturn long-standing assumptions about powerful explosions called novae and have produced specific information about one nearby nova.

This sophisticated new system, called the Keck Interferometer, combines the observing power of the two 10-meter (33 feet) Keck telescopes into a single mega-telescope. Using the interferometer’s "nulling" mode, data were taken by the Keck Interferometer team on a nearby nova called RS Ophiuchi.

In "nulling" mode, the Keck Interferometer suppresses the blinding light of a star so researchers can study the surrounding environment. The instrument helps them observe very faint objects near bright sources and produces 10 times more resolving power than a single Keck telescope working alone. It is the only instrument of its kind in operation.

The nulling mode was developed to search for dust regions around nearby stars, where planets might be forming, but the bright starlight poses a great challenge. "Because a star is so much brighter than the dust, something has to block the light, which is what the nuller does," said Rachel L. Akeson, Keck Interferometer project scientist at the California Institute of Technology’s Michelson Science Center. "This technique turns out to be useful for lots of other kinds of objects, including this one, where dust is near a star that just went nova."

These nova data were taken by a team led by Wes Traub of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., and the data analysis and unified model for the nova were produced by a team led by Richard Barry and William Danchi of the Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

The star in the constellation Ophiuchus went nova at the perfect time for the team, on Feb. 12, 2006. "We were extremely lucky, because we had astronomers in place at two mountain-top interferometers, Keck in Hawaii and Infrared Optical Telescope Array in Arizona. Within minutes of hearing about the discovery of the nova, we alerted both teams to start observing it that night," said Traub, a senior research scientist at JPL.

The nova system, known as RS Oph consists of a white dwarf and a red giant. The red giant is gradually shedding its massive gaseous outer layers, and the white dwarf is sweeping up much of this wind, growing in mass over time. As the matter builds up on the white dwarf’s surface, it eventually reaches a critical temperature that ignites a thermonuclear explosion that causes the system to brighten 600-fold. RS Oph was previously observed blowing its stack in 1898, 1933, 1958, 1967 and 1985, so astronomers were eagerly anticipating the 2006 eruption.

About three-and-a-half days after the nova was detected, the group observed the explosion with the Keck nuller. They set the instrument to cancel the nova’s light, allowing them to see the much fainter surrounding material, and then the extremely bright blast zone.

The instrument’s versatility was key to a surprising discovery. The nuller saw no dust in the bright zone, presumably because the nova’s blast wave vaporized dust particles. But farther from the white dwarf, at distances starting around 20 times the Earth-sun distance, the nuller recorded the spectral chemical signature of silicate dust. The blast wave had not yet reached this zone, so the dust must have pre-dated the explosion.

"This flies in the face of what we expected. Astronomers had previously thought that nova explosions actually create dust," said Richard Barry of Goddard, lead author of the paper on the observations that will appear in the Astrophysical Journal. The team thinks the dust is created as the white dwarf plows through the red giant’s wind, creating a pinwheel pattern of higher-density regions that is reminiscent of galaxy spiral arms. Inside these arms, atoms become cool enough and dense enough to allow atoms to stick together to form dust particles. The nova’s blast wave has since destroyed RS Oph’s pinwheel pattern, but it should re-form over the next few years, and future observations by NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope could see it. Barry is also coauthor of a paper based on Spitzer observations of RS Oph.

Most studies of RS Oph have relied on spectroscopic models, which have not been able to distinguish various nova components with as much detail as the interferometer. The Keck nuller measured one component of the RS Oph system to an accuracy of just 4 milliarcseconds, or about the size of a basketball seen 7,500 miles away.

The current credit crisis isn’t just hitting the housing market. Last June, BC Partners agreed to buy satellite operator Intelsat. Now, BC Partners is requesting an "unusual" exception, asking "existing lenders to finance the purchase instead of selling a new financing in the open market." The current credit conditions make it very difficult to sell loans.

If Credit Suisse’s proposal is accepted, it would be relieved of the task of refinancing the bank loans for Intelsat and PanAmSat. New financing would still be required to finance the purchase, but the amount needed would be much smaller than the $5.1 billion commitment, as lenders would have agreed to roll the existing credit agreement into the new company.

The terms of Credit Suisse’s proposal are unusual in that the bank is asking lenders to loosen the definition of a "change of control" clause in the existing credit agreement. Usually, this clause will trigger a repayment of bank debt, but under the current proposal, a change of control would not be triggered.

For some background on Intelsat:

Intelsat, a global satellite network set up in 1965 by the national telecom operators of several Western countries, is being sold by a group of four buyout funds. Apax Partners, Permira, Apollo Management and Madison Dearborn Partners bought the company for about $3.1 billion in 2004. They added PanAmSat, a rival operator, for $3.2 billion in 2005.

Intelsat, based in Washington, operates 51 satellites used by cable companies, broadcast networks and governments for distributing video programming. It leases capacity to television companies rather than providing content itself.

The company has about 35 per cent global market share and last year reported $1.7 billion in revenues and adjusted earnings of $1.3 billion. Just under half its business is in North America, with 15 per cent of profits driven by Europe and 17 per cent from the Middle East and Africa.

Despite the credit conditions and the uncertainty surrounding the Intelsat transaction , BC Partners remains upbeat:

BC Partners, the international private equity group have today said they are anticipating returns in excess of 20% on the group’s sub-prime linked investment portfolio, despite the ongoing unrest in the global credit marketplace, according to a top executive today.

Stefan Zuschke of the group’s German operation said that the group was still looking forward to returns of as much as a fifth from its portfolio, despite the collapse of the sub-prime sector which left many banks and investment firms heavily out of pocket and forced to take severe writedowns against their balance sheets.

Whilst it was said that the credit crunch made for difficult times for investment firms, given increasing reluctance from banks to put up the cash for acquisitions and buy-outs at the same rate as before, he added that 2008 would see a return to the previous levels of spending and somewhere in the region of the same level of market confidence and optimism.

Apparently, a spy satellite is no longer in control and could crash to earth very soon. Today’s New York Times has some detail:

Specialists who follow spy satellite operations suspect it is an experimental imagery satellite built by Lockheed Martin and launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California in December 2006 aboard a Delta II rocket. Shortly after the satellite reached orbit, ground controllers lost the ability to control it and were never able to regain communication.

Of course, somebody has to think of the worst. This report from Canadian TV picks up on the hydrazine threat:

Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, said appropriate government agencies are monitoring the situation.

"Numerous satellites over the years have come out of orbit and fallen harmlessly," he said. "We are looking at potential options to mitigate any possible damage this satellite may cause."

It’s unknown whether the U.S. may attempt to destroy the spy satellite before it re-enters the atmosphere.

"It’s not all that easy," said Atwood. "You’re not going to shoot it down, you’re just going to explode it into a million pieces that are ultimately going to fall on the Earth."

An anonymous government source told AP that the satellite contains a rocket fuel called hydrazine, which is a toxic chemical and can be harmful to anyone exposed to it.

One of the news "sources" cited a launch out of Vandenburgh AFB on a Delta II rocket. Probably the NROL-21, a classified NRO spacecraft. Judging from its orbit (353 km x 380 km, 58.5°), it’s probably an experimental radar, according to Gunther:

NROL 21 is the cover-name for one-off classified satellite. Although nothing is known about the mission, the orbit hints for an experimental radar reconnaisance satellite.

A few weeks after launch reports emerged, that grond stations were unable to communicate with an expensive experimental U.S. spy satellite launched last year by the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). Efforts were said to be continuing to reestablish communication with the classified satellite, which cost hundreds of millions of dollars, but "the prognosis is not great at this point," said the defense official, who asked not to be identified.The official said the problems were substantial and involved multiple systems, adding that U.S. officials were working to reestablish contact with the satellite because of the importance of the new technology it was meant to test and demonstrate. An other source said the satellite had been described to him as "a comprehensive failure."

In August 2007 the satellite has been declared a complete loss and will be allowed to decay from orbit.

I doubt the re-entry will be as pretty as the launch was…

It certainly will not have an on-board camera like the launch did (fast forward to 2:35 — that’s when the action begins):

AP report: 

Disabled spy satellite threatens Earth

By EILEEN SULLIVAN, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON – A large U.S. spy satellite has lost power and could hit the Earth in late February or March, government officials said Saturday. 

The satellite, which no longer can be controlled, could contain hazardous materials, and it is unknown where on the planet it might come down, they said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the information is classified as secret.

"Appropriate government agencies are monitoring the situation," said Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council, when asked about the situation after it was disclosed by other officials. "Numerous satellites over the years have come out of orbit and fallen harmlessly. We are looking at potential options to mitigate any possible damage this satellite may cause."

He would not comment on whether it is possible for the satellite to be perhaps shot down by a missile. He said it would be inappropriate to discuss any specifics at this time.

A senior government official said that lawmakers and other nations are being kept apprised of the situation.

Such an uncontrolled re-entry could risk exposure of U.S. secrets, said John Pike, a defense and intelligence expert. Spy satellites typically are disposed of through a controlled re-entry into the ocean so that no one else can access the spacecraft, he said.

Pike also said it’s not likely the threat from the satellite could be eliminated by shooting it down with a missile, because that would create debris that would then re-enter the atmosphere and burn up or hit the ground.

Pike, director of the defense research group GlobalSecurity.org, estimated that the spacecraft weighs about 20,000 pounds and is the size of a small bus. He said the satellite would create 10 times less debris than the Columbia space shuttle crash in 2003.

As for possible hazardous material in the spacecraft, Pike said it might contain beryllium, a light metal with a high melting point that is used in the defense and aerospace industries. Breathing beryllium can lead to chronic, incurable respiratory problems.

Jeffrey Richelson, a senior fellow with the National Security Archive, said the spacecraft likely is a photo reconnaissance satellite. Such eyes in the sky are used to gather visual information from space about adversarial governments and terror groups, including construction at suspected nuclear sites or militant training camps. The satellites also can be used to survey damage from hurricanes, fires and other natural disasters.

The largest uncontrolled re-entry by a NASA spacecraft was Skylab, the 78-ton abandoned space station that fell from orbit in 1979. Its debris dropped harmlessly into the Indian Ocean and across a remote section of western Australia.

In 2000, NASA engineers successfully directed a safe de-orbit of the 17-ton Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, using rockets aboard the satellite to bring it down in a remote part of the Pacific Ocean.

In 2002, officials believe debris from a 7,000-pound science satellite smacked into the Earth’s atmosphere and rained down over the Persian Gulf, a few thousand miles from where they first predicted it would plummet.

After a rough 2007 — in which they lost $335,000 on nearly $40 million in revenues,  compared to a 2006 profit of just over $250,000 — Israel’s Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. is entering 2008 with some good news:

Israel’s Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. announced Monday that it will supply India’s Bharti Airtel with a broadband satellite network comprising more than 13,000 small two-way ground stations.

The new network, using Gilat’s SkyEdge technology, will be used by Bharti Airtel to offer information and communication services to the local citizens of India’s Gujarat State.

The agreement "will enable remote citizens in the state of Gujarat to benefit from information and e-governance services," Erez Antebi, CEO of Gilat Network Systems, said in a statement.

Gilat offers VSATs or very small aperture terminal, a two-way satellite ground station with a dish antenna, in India.

SkyEdge is a satellite communications system that delivers high-quality voice, broadband data and video services over a powerful unified system. 

No word yet on the value of the contract, but it’s probably just a taste of the satellite broadband opportunities that are rapidly emerging in India. Compare it, for example, to the deal Bharti signed with IBM, which includes direct-to-home satellite services and IPTV:

In a bid to boost its triple play platform, Bharti Airtel has awarded a $150-million contract to IBM to provide IT solutions and services to support broadcasting services such as DTH and IPTV.

Bharti had already outsourced its IT requirement for the telecom business and the new deal is aimed at providing a one-stop experience spanning mobile, PC and television. 

A direct-to-home satellite TV service in India is, of course, the satcom motherloade. People have been trying to launch that kind of service for years. Back in 1999, News Corp’s ISkyB attempted it in partnership with Hughes; Star TV India was another service from News Corp, which is now a collection of premium content for India.