Korean Ping-Pong
As the debate rages in the press as to whether Pyongyang’s 60-year obsession came to fruition on Sunday — or, if, as Drudge is reporting, the North Korean blast was a "dud" — it’s worth taking a moment to ask: how do we come to conclusions about what really happened?
To do so, it’s worth recounting how the United States learned about the blast.
Our initial warning that the nuclear test was about to take place came not from a high-tech gizmo, but in a phone call from the Chinese:
The White House said Monday the United States received word from China of North Korea’s intent to conduct a nuclear test minutes ahead of the reported event.
According to spokesman Tony Snow, North Korea had called its ally China to advise them on the imminent explosion at about 9 p.m. EST Sunday. China in turn notified the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, which relayed the message to Washington.
Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice received notification about 9:45 p.m. and notified national security adviser Stephen Hadley. Hadley called President George W. Bush at about 9:52 p.m.
South Korean authorities said they felt the seismic tremor from an apparent explosion in North Korea in about the same time frame of Hadley and Bush being notified.
In addition to indications on the ground in South Korea, there was the on-the-air announcement in North Korea:
Soon thereafter, the USGS and other agencies began to analyze the seismic data to locate the epicenter and identify the magnitude of the tremors that were registered on seismic monitors. In this case, the magnitude was 4.2, and the location was pinned down (though not literally, of course) on the map.
NOAA’s NESDIS satellite likely played a key role in communicating the scientific (non-intelligence) data, and satellite telemetry helped pinpoint the location of the tremor.
The result? So far, a good deal of doubt on behalf of the West in regards to North Korea’s claims of success:
U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that seismic readings show that the conventional high explosives used to create a chain reaction in a plutonium-based device went off, but that the blast’s readings were shy of a typical nuclear detonation.
"We’re still evaluating the data, and as more data comes in, we hope to develop a clearer picture," said one official familiar with intelligence reports.
"There was a seismic event that registered about 4 on the Richter scale, but it still isn’t clear if it was a nuclear test. You can get that kind of seismic reading from high explosives."
The underground explosion, which Pyongyang dubbed a historic nuclear test, is thought to have been the equivalent of several hundred tons of TNT, far short of the several thousand tons of TNT, or kilotons, that are signs of a nuclear blast, the official said.The official said that so far, "it appears there was more fizz than pop."
Without satellites and seismic monitors, however, it would be impossible to say whether it was fizz, pop, or outright propaganda on the part of North Korea.
