Really Rocket Science

Both Atlas V and Ariane 5 rockets went up recently. Both were equipped with rocketcams, but the weather was better at The Cape than in Kourou, so the Atlas launch’s lookback was really cool.

Chalk up another loss for space/launch insurance underwriters. A Proton/Briz M launch’s 3rd stage failed and lost MexSat-1 (a.k.a. Centenario) — a huge Boeing 702 intended for mobile and fixed services (L- and Ku-band).

What happened? Anatoly Zak gives the best, most-qualified explanation. Probably fuel line problems.

Add this to a Soyuz launch anomaly earlier this month and you would think this may be a pattern. Is it technical or is it systemic? Probably both.

One could argue there’s a lack of enthusiasm and a brain-drain of top Ukrainian engineering talent in the Russian space business. Or it could be the return of the “old Soviet work ethic,” where nobody really cares. People get promoted to positions of authority without really being qualified, just so they can be “controlled” by others at the Kremlin. That’s what I think is happening.

It goes back more than 10 years, around the time Putin started going after complete control of Russia. In 2006, Mario Lemme’s Space Transport Inc. was created to take control of International Launch Services, the joint venture created to market Proton and Atlas launches. Since then, the market for commercial launches has changed (thank you, SpaceX), but the prices for launch services has gone up. But the technical success helps further development of non-commercial and space-exploration systems. With the world still dependent on getting humans to/from the ISS using the Soyuz launcher, we’re in a spot of trouble.

Meanwhile, how are we to substitute our supply source for RD-180 engines? We need to make this a priority. Rather, the big boys in the U.S. are more concerned about corporate headcount (read about the “mothers day massacre”).

Science likes to explain things with facts. Political views tend to use some facts. But outright liars and social manipulators such as Putin and his fellow KGB remnants don’t get along with any facts they don’t like. They just want control. Control of people, money and probably access to space from Russian territory (hence the pressure to build Vostochny).

Succeeding in space will further popularize Putin in Russia and that’s what he’s after. Fuck science: Russia’s space industry is failing due to “moral issues,” according to Rogozin.

Naturally, Arianespace participates in the Paris Air Show and the swirling questions are related to a competitor who isn’t there: SpaceX. Their response is predictable and defensive, and with a billion euros at stake, can you blame them?

There’s a real need for commercial launch services and well-run commercial satellite operators want to make sure there’s viable set of competitors out there. Spreading business around to Sea-Launch, Arianespace and ILS (Proton) helps keep them in business and assures the operators a way into space when needed. Commercial launches from Cape Canaveral were always preferred — both for location and reliability. The cost, however, made the bean-counters squirm.

Reading the Reuters report by Irene Klotz about how there were no commercial launches struck me as naive. The U.S. Air Force reserved all the available launch vehicle manifests for Atlas and Delta in the U.S. for their payloads — not because of competition from foreign-based companies. Yes, there’s the cost factor. If you could save $20 million on a single launch by going to Kazakhstan or French Guiana, why not?

And that’s why SpaceX is set to grab a bunch of business by launching from the Cape at a lower cost. If you factor in the prospect of all-electric spacecraft, then you could see a seismic shift in the market dynamics of launch services. So you shouldn’t wonder why Arianespace is being defensive, as cited by Space News…

One of the Falcon 9’s most potent arguments is that it is capable of carrying two all-electric-propulsion satellites at a time into geostationary transfer orbit. But according to the first customer of Boeing Space and Intelligence Systems’ all-electric 702SP platform, Satmex of Mexico, it will take the Satmex satellite about eight months to reach its final orbital position and begin generating revenue.

Factoring in a longer orbit-raising into the overall spacecraft replacement cycle is certainly possible. Now, if only satellite operators start passing along these savings from simplified spacecraft design, lower-cost launch and cost-effective propulsion systems to lowering the cost of leasing bandwidth to customers remains to be seen.