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Uncontrolled Re-entry by Spy Satellite

Apparently, a spy satellite is no longer in control and could crash to earth very soon. Today’s New York Times has some detail:

Specialists who follow spy satellite operations suspect it is an experimental imagery satellite built by Lockheed Martin and launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California in December 2006 aboard a Delta II rocket. Shortly after the satellite reached orbit, ground controllers lost the ability to control it and were never able to regain communication.

Of course, somebody has to think of the worst. This report from Canadian TV picks up on the hydrazine threat:

Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, said appropriate government agencies are monitoring the situation.

"Numerous satellites over the years have come out of orbit and fallen harmlessly," he said. "We are looking at potential options to mitigate any possible damage this satellite may cause."

It’s unknown whether the U.S. may attempt to destroy the spy satellite before it re-enters the atmosphere.

"It’s not all that easy," said Atwood. "You’re not going to shoot it down, you’re just going to explode it into a million pieces that are ultimately going to fall on the Earth."

An anonymous government source told AP that the satellite contains a rocket fuel called hydrazine, which is a toxic chemical and can be harmful to anyone exposed to it.

 

One of the news "sources" cited a launch out of Vandenburgh AFB on a Delta II rocket. Probably the NROL-21, a classified NRO spacecraft. Judging from its orbit (353 km x 380 km, 58.5°), it’s probably an experimental radar, according to Gunther:

NROL 21 is the cover-name for one-off classified satellite. Although nothing is known about the mission, the orbit hints for an experimental radar reconnaisance satellite.

A few weeks after launch reports emerged, that grond stations were unable to communicate with an expensive experimental U.S. spy satellite launched last year by the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). Efforts were said to be continuing to reestablish communication with the classified satellite, which cost hundreds of millions of dollars, but "the prognosis is not great at this point," said the defense official, who asked not to be identified.The official said the problems were substantial and involved multiple systems, adding that U.S. officials were working to reestablish contact with the satellite because of the importance of the new technology it was meant to test and demonstrate. An other source said the satellite had been described to him as "a comprehensive failure."

In August 2007 the satellite has been declared a complete loss and will be allowed to decay from orbit.

I doubt the re-entry will be as pretty as the launch was…

It certainly will not have an on-board camera like the launch did (fast forward to 2:35 — that’s when the action begins):

 

This entry was posted on Sunday, January 27th, 2008 at 2:44 pm and is filed under Observation, Satellite TV. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

6 Comments

  • Data Centre Design says:
    May 7, 2011 at 2:51 pm

    An amazing video. SM-3 missile intercept test.

    Reply
  • Rocco Fanucci says:
    January 28, 2008 at 8:19 pm

    The SatTrackCam Leiden station blog has more info on this spacecraft.

    Heavens Above predicts when and where to observe it yourself. 

    The orbit data is extracted from the following two-line orbital elements,

    1 29651U 06057A   08022.26925691 0.00105000  00000-0  21306-3 0    07
    2 29651  58.5247 160.3977 0003288  53.6760 306.3240 15.98950761    06

    Epoch (UTC):     6:27:44 AM, Tuesday, January 22, 2008
    Eccentricity:     0.0003288
    Inclination:     58.5247°
    Perigee Height:     275 km
    Apogee Height:     279 km
    Right Ascension of Ascending Node:     160.3977°
    Argument of Perigee:     53.6760°
    Revolutions per Day:     15.98950761
    Mean Anomaly at Epoch:     306.3240°
    Orbit Number at Epoch:     0

     

    Reply
  • Rocco Fanucci says:
    February 14, 2008 at 2:10 pm

    Noah’s got more detail in Wired’s Danger Room:

    Sometime in the next 11 days, a Navy cruiser is going to aim a missile just above the atmosphere, and try to take out a malfunctioning spy satellite before it crashes to Earth — and maybe releases a toxic gas in the process.

    Defense Department officials detailed the shootdown operation, in a briefing with reporters Thursday afternoon.

    The 5,000-pound National Reconnaissance Office surveillance satellite was pronounced dead just a few hours after it was inserted into orbit, on Dec. 14, 2006. This January, the U.S. military realized that the satellite was beginning its descent down into the atmosphere, Deputy National Security Advisor James Jeffrey noted. Ordinarily, this wouldn’t be much cause for concern; objects of this size plummet into the Earth’s atmosphere all the time. But this satellite contains a full tank — over 1,000 pounds’ worth — of the rocket propellant hydrazine. And there’s a small but real risk that the tank could rupture, releasing a "toxic gas" over a "populated area," causing a "risk to human life."

    The chances of "hitting land or a person as a hunk" are low, added Joint Chiefs of Staff Vice Chairman Gen. James Cartwright. "What’s different here is the hydrazine."

    The plan is to fire a modified SM-3 interceptor at the satellite, "just prior to it hitting the Earth’s atmosphere," Cartwright said. If the missile connects at that height, the collision would reduce the amount of debris that would be released into space; most of the satellite chunks would likely burn up in the air, within the first 10-15 hours, he noted. And a hit then would likely "slow the satellite down" so we can "put it in the ocean," Gen. Cartwright added. Space security experts say that idea is "very feasible."  Others are extremely skeptical.

    Shooting down the satellite earlier might risk other objects in orbit, Gen. Cartwright said. And "once it hits the atmosphere, it breaks apart and becomes very difficult to engage."

    The SM-3 missile that’s supposed to do the job is at the heart of the most successful component of the American missile-defense program; unlike other, less reliable interceptors, the SM-3 has hit its targets in 11 of its last 13 tests. Two other Aegis cruisers, armed with similar weapons, will be on standby, in case the initial SM-3 fails to fire, or misses its target.

    The takedown attempt could come as early as three or four days from now. After that, there will be a window of seven to eight days in which a shot will be possible.

    Reply
  • Anonymous says:
    February 18, 2008 at 6:48 pm

    Via CNN earlier today:

    The U.S. Navy will likely attempt to shoot down a faulty spy satellite Thursday, the day after the space shuttle Atlantis is scheduled to land, two officials told CNN Monday.

    The officials — who spoke on condition of anonymity because much of the planning remains classified — said the idea is to leave as much time as possible so a second attempt could be made if necessary.

    Because the 5,000-pound satellite malfunctioned immediately after launch in December 2006, it has a full tank of fuel. It would likely survive re-entry and disperse potentially deadly fumes over an area the size of two football fields, officials have said.

    The Navy plans to fire at the satellite as it enters Earth’s atmosphere at an altitude of about 150 miles.

    Officials want the missile to hit the edge of the atmosphere to ensure debris re-enters and burns up quickly.

    The Missile Defense Agency estimated the cost of a sea-based attempted intercept at $40 million to $60 million.

    Without any intervention, Pentagon officials have said they believe the satellite would come down on its own in early March.

    The option of striking the satellite with a missile launched from an Aegis cruiser was decided upon by President Bush after consultation with several government and military officials and aerospace experts, said Deputy National Security Adviser James Jeffrey.

    NASA Administrator Michael Griffin said there’s nothing the military can do to make the outcome worse.

    "If we miss, nothing changes. If we shoot and barely touch it, the satellite is just barely in orbit" and would still burn up somewhat in the atmosphere, Griffin said.

    "If we shoot and get a direct hit, that’s a clean kill and we’re in good shape," he added.

    Is this possible? You bet it is. Here’s a nice clip of a SM-3 missile intercept test:

    Reply
  • Anonymous says:
    February 14, 2008 at 6:20 am

    All this info about a super-secret spacecraft becoming widely available? Must be prepping the world for a "we gotta shoot it down" declaration. The scoops at Aviation Week & Space Technology are always worth reading:

    U.S. officials are studying the possibility of shooting down the errant Lockheed Martin intelligence satellite that was launched into space for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).

    The concern is that the spacecraft carries a full tank of hydrazine – a toxic propellant – that would have been used to reposition the satellite in orbit. Government analysts say the odds are that the tank will crack open during re-entry or than it will land in the ocean, which makes up 70% of the area where the breaking up satellite might land. There also is concern in some quarters that debris could reveal U.S. national security secrets if recovered by other nations. It is expected to re-enter the atmosphere late this month or in early March.

    Analysts at the Missile Defense Agency and NRO have put hundreds of hours into analysis and have studied closely the accuracy of surveillance capabilities of U.S. radars in Japan, Alaska and possibly elsewhere to give more targeting options to those assessing the danger of the satellite falling to Earth.

    A senior official with insight into the planning says that a rumor that the satellite carried a small, nuclear generator is "absolutely and totally incorrect." However, government agencies including MDA and NRO "are studying options that include" hitting the satellite with a weapon so that it breaks up in space – and ruptures the hydrazine tank — before beginning its descent.

    If the hydrazine tank did hit a populated area intact, and depending on winds and the dynamics of "plumeology," the impact could affect humans – perhaps kill some – out to a distance of "20-30 yards," the official says.

    Aerospace Corp., a California-based research organization that regularly advises the Defense Department, has assembled some basic data about falling satellites and what can be done about them. "For an orbiting object, shooting it down actually breaks the object into many pieces, some of which could be hazardous to other satellites," says the Aerospace Corp. "Many of the fragments will survive re-entry, but be spread over a much larger area. The pros and cons for a specific case would need to be examined."

    Re-entering objects, including major items such as satellites, platforms and rocket bodies have dropped 5,400 metric tons of material on the Earth in the past 40 years, the research group says.

    However, "if a satellite or rocket body has propulsive capability, it can use rocket motor burns to target the re-entry into a desired area. The technique was recently used by NASA to ensure debris from the 14,000 kg. Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory landed in the ocean," it says.

    As to the threat, "One person was brushed on the shoulder by a piece of debris in 1997. She was not injured. Large, hazardous fragments can survive, but in most cases, debris from re-entered objects is never found or reported," Aerospace said.

     

    Reply
  • Rocco Fanucci says:
    April 30, 2008 at 8:04 pm

    Another amazing video from AGI…

     

    Reply

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