Really Rocket Science

Rumors have been going on for months about the two big U.S. satellite TV providers (DirecTV and EchoStar) merging. The buzz grew louder earlier this week after the Los Angeles Times quoted EchoStar CEO Charlie Ergen at the Allen & Company annual media-mogul-fest in Sun Valley, Idaho saying that combining the two largest satellite TV providers could save $3 billion in expenses.

The comment set off a renewed flurry of press speculation of a potential merger. The Rocky Mountain News (EchoStar is based in Englewood, CO) reported yesterday:

EchoStar Communications Corp. shares were raised to "buy" from "sell" at Citigroup Inc. because of an increased chance that the No. 2 satellite television provider may combine with rival DirecTV Group Inc….

"It reflects our belief that there is a greater chance that EchoStar and DirecTV may attempt to merge," Bazinet said
of his rating change.

A merger is more likely since EchoStar and DirecTV formed a joint venture to bid for wireless spectrum in an auction next month, Bazinet said in the note. Satellite TV companies are also facing rising competition from cable companies such as Comcast Corp. as well as from telephone companies such as Verizon Communications Inc. that are starting TV services.

Propelling the talk is the growing awareness that IPTV will fundamentally change the media landscape and the balance of power between satcom- and telco-delivered content, as well as growing evidence that Rubert Murdoch’s News Corp is set to receive approval for a project that could create a national WiMAX network. As The Hollywood Reporter writes:

Approval is imminent for the project that could take at least two years and $2 billion, providing News Corp. and DirecTV a valuable wireless interactive broadband loop with consumers to directly sell content, advertising, goods and services. WiMax is a wireless a broadband technology often referred to as "WiFi on steroids" with a much wider 30-mile range than the more limited access offered by WiFi services. WiMax, which is short for World Interoperability for Microwave Access, also promises to provide more security and speed than traditional wireless connections.

"If we can pull something off … there is no reason why that shouldn’t link in with everything," News Corp. chairman and CEO Rupert Murdoch said in a recent interview….

High-level sources say the unprecedented undertaking will involve strategic equity partners that bring WiMax spectrum, equipment and other expertise to the mix. In one of the most likely scenarios, News Corp. and DirecTV have been in advanced talks with Clearwire Corp., a WiMax venture of Craig McCaw, in which chipmaker Intel Corp. and equipment manufacturer Motorola Inc. recently invested $900 million.
McCaw has been amassing one of the largest stables of licensed radio spectrum to build his own national wireless WiMax network. Intel, which has a vested interest in the commercial success of WiMax, particularly for PC users, has been one of Clearwire’s partners from the start….

Some sources say that EchoStar could join DirecTV in providing a united domestic satellite-backed WiMax alternative to cable and to telephone competitors such as Verizon, Cingular and Sprint Nextel. Sprint Nextel is working with a consortium of cable operators including Comcast and Time Warner to assist them with a much-needed wireless out-of-home extension.

Still, not everyone is convinced that the coming WiMAX wars will lead to consolidation on the SatCom side. Al Lewis in the Denver Post says that "anybody who believes EchoStar and DirecTV are about to merge should remember the forgotten tome "The Essential Guide to the Echo- Star/DirecTV Deal:"

Australian media mogul Rupert Murdoch had his team of lobbyists canvass Washington with this 123-page diatribe in 2002.

It argued, in exhaustive detail, why Douglas County-based EchoStar should not be allowed to acquire DirecTV from Hughes Electronics….

In October 2002, the Federal Communications Commission [sic– it was the FTC] blocked Ergen’s deal. The Justice Department blocked it too.

Then Murdoch’s News Corp. acquired a controlling stake in DirecTV for $6.6 billion…

And now – four years later – there are continuing rumors that DirecTV, the nation’s No. 1 satellite-TV provider, will acquire EchoStar, No. 2.

EchoStar and DirecTV are working on several joint projects that involve the two-way transmission of voice, video and data. But if Murdoch were to bid on EchoStar, he’d have to argue against his previous arguments. Or he’d have to argue that the satellite-TV business has changed significantly over the past four years.

The results of the August auctions for additional WiFi spectrum will give observers a clue as to who is coming out ahead in the inevitable rush to bring WiMAX to market. And whether the DirecTV and EchoStar rumors are just rumors or not, we’d expect to hear more talk of consolidation on both sides as emerging technology further alters the old divisions between cable, satcom and telcos.

Pop quiz. Where were you 37 years ago today? Where were you 30 years ago today?

In the first case, I’m not sure where I was, but I was probably learning how to sit up. Meanwhile Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin were becoming the first humans to walk on the moon.

Seven years later, I was walking, talking, and probably getting underfoot around the house when Viking I became the first spacecraft to land safely on another planet.

Via Respectful Insolence and MetaFilter.

It turns out that private spacecraft launch I blogged last week wasn’t exclusively a private entrepreneurial affair. NASA was along for the ride in Bigelow’s balloon, in the form of an experimental micro-lab the agency calls a GeneBox.

The space agency sent up a so-called GeneBox, a micro-lab, with Bigelow Aerospace’s Genesis I last week, piggybaggying a ride on the commercial spaceflight test.

The Genebox is about the size of a shoebox and is attached to the internal structure of Bigelow’s 14-foot inflatable spacecraft, which the company launched from Russia as a demonstration of an affordable human space complex it hopes to launch by 2015. NASA’s GeneBox contains a miniature laboratory of sensors and optical systems that can detect proteins and specific genetic activity. In two weeks, the Bigelow ground control station in Las Vegas, Nev., will activate the GeneBox, and once its tests are complete, data from GeneBox will be relayed to the ground for analysis.

According to NASA, GeneBox will analyze how the near weightlessness of space affects genes in microscopic cells and other small life forms. "During this mission, we are verifying this new, small spacecraft’s systems and our procedures," John Hines, the GeneBox project manager at NASA Ames Research Center in California’s Silicon Valley, said in a statement.

A while back I posted about the RIAA lawsuit against XM Radio, claiming $150,000 in damages for each song that XM’s Inno device downloads from its satellite service. Well, now it looks like XM is stepping up and asking a federal judge to toss the case out of court.

XM Satellite Radio asked a U.S. federal judge Monday to throw out a copyright lawsuit by the recording industry over the company’s new iPod-like device that can store up to 50 hours of music.

XM Satellite said the 1992 Home Recording Audio act protects it from being sued over its $400 (U.S.) handheld "Inno" device. The law bans some copyright claims against equipment makers and consumers who make digital music recordings for private use.

… XM Satellite has compared its new device to a high-tech videocassette recorder, which consumers can legally use to record programs for their personal use. It also noted that songs stored on the device from its broadcasts can’t be copied and can only be played for as long as a customer subscribes to its service.

Sounds familiar. I’m probably giving away my age by saying this, but when I was a kid I spent lots of time listening to the radio, and when a favorite song of mine came on I’d hit the "Record" button on the cassette player, and record songs until I had a tape full of my favorites (though minus the beginning of the song in some cases). XM’s player sounds a lot like that. And, as I noted before, if XM subscribers want to have their favorite songs on other devices they can download them from pay services like Napster or iTunes, thus effectively paying for the songs twice — once as XM subscribers and again to download from a pay service.

Of course XM may be seeking to get the case behind them, since they’re about to launch Oprah’s radio show in August, but also because the competition is catching up with them. The Globe & Mail article notes that XM has balked at notion of having to buy expensive distribution licenses from the recording industry, but that Sirius has agreed to pay for those licenses to cover its own similar players. Meanwhile the buzz in the business world is that Sirius is closing in on XM’s subscriber numbers and that XM CEO Hugh Panero may have to work to get the buzz back in XM’s favor.

WaPo columnist Steve Pearlstein has more on the case of XM v. RIAA, and answered questions this morning in an online chat.

With all the talk about Katie Couric moving to CBS to anchor their evening news, which will be promoted on 35 millions eggs, I couldn’t help but notice a news item regarding Congressional testimony asking for help with some COOP.  Get ready for egg jokes.

 
But in this case, COOP stands for Continuity of Operations Planning and the testimony was all about satellite communications as the truly diverse communications path, with the unique ability to link remote locations to the Internet or other private or government network. Hey, if this helps bring down the cost of equipment, I’m all for it. Generally, the U.S. government prefers satcom for many applications, so maybe this is a good approach for  companies such as Hughes and Spacenet.

Now, back to the space chickens. The closest thing we’ve got are the endangered Attwater’s Prairie Chickens, many of whom were relocated to NASA’s Johnson Space Center. Once common in Texas, these birds are a part of indigenous culture. They’re the closest thing we have to space chickens, although they did appear as protagonists in the Muppets movie “Pigs in Space” in 1983. However, one should note the Chinese had the first (somebody had fun with this story).

The sense of relief felt by many following Discovery’s successful completion of its mission today is a reminder that spaceflight is a complicated and sometimes dangerous business.

Another reminder came just last week, when the launch of India’s Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle GSLV-F02 ended in dramatic failure on July 10th, destroying "India’s newest communications satellite and the nation’s largest rocket,"" according to SpaceFlightNow. 

"ISRO officials were forced to destruct the GSLV F02 to prevent populated areas from being hit by the rocket debris falling from the sky," reports domain-B. 

You can see a video of the launch failure here. Details of the rocket’s satellite payload can be found here and here. IBN has the summary of the disaster:

Seconds after a perfect takeoff, the 49-metre-long launch vehicle, deviated from its trajectory and plunged into the Bay of Bengal.

The three-stage 414-tonne launch vehicle of the ISRO, which lifted off from Satish Dhawan Space Centre on Monday evening, started under-performing right from the start and veered off its path after travelling a few kilometres into the sky….

GSLV-F02 was carrying a 2,168-kg INSAT-4C, the latest satellite of the Indian National Satellite System series, aimed at augmenting the Direct-To-Home television services, facilitate video picture transmission, digital satellite news gathering and provide VSAT connectivity to National Informatics Centre.

Perhaps the worst news of the day: neither the rocket nor the satellite were insured. 

MSNBC has some good video coverage as well.

We’ve written before about the incredible growth potential of IPTV and mobile TV — both of which, after all, were all the buzz at this year’s NAB conference— but this snippet from Digital Trends really caught our eye:

Recent reports suggest that global IPTV subscriptions are expected to jump from 2 million to 34 million between 2005 and 2010. North America is expected to see the quickest growth with a forecasted 14 million households by 2010 accounting for 80% of these subscriptions….

What’s suprising is the slow IPTV deployments taking place in Asia as TDG predicts that Asia will only account for a mere 5.6 million subscriptions. This is primarily due to the impending launch of Digital Terrestrial Television (DTT)….

The Chinese government has stated publicly that this new standard (dubbed ‘Digital Multimedia Broadcasting – Terrestrial/Handheld’ or ‘DMB-T/H’) will eventually serve more than half of China’s TV viewers, especially those in suburban and rural areas. Until then, analog and broadband based services may well find a healthy market for the few years to come.

"IPTV market conditions vary widely depending on the country or geography in question, entailing that individual markets will evolve and behave in very unique ways," added Dixon. He also noted that a handful of individual service operators will account for 75% of the deployed volume with the remaining 25% split between hundreds of other operators. "These conditions will pose a challenge to all types of IPTV solutions vendors, one that requires detailed and flexible implementation and go-to-market strategies." 

Via Space Pragmatism, here are not one but two interviews with Robert Bigelow, the man responsible for yesterday’s launch of an experimental inflatable spacecraft. There’s also a pretty neat Google Maps site for tracking Genesis in orbit.

Commercial spaceflight took a big leap forward recently. You might even say it sent up a test balloon, in the form of Robert Bigelow’s inflatable spacecraft.

An experimental inflatable spacecraft bankrolled by real estate magnate Robert Bigelow rocketed into orbit Wednesday to test technology that could be used to fulfill his dream of building a commercial space station.

The Genesis I satellite flew aboard a converted Cold War ballistic missile from Russia’s southern ro Mountains at 6:53 p.m. Moscow time. It was boosted about 320 miles above Earth minutes after launch, according to the Russian Strategic Missile Forces.

The launch was a first for the startup Bigelow Aerospace, founded by Bigelow, who owns the Budget Suites of America hotel chain. Bigelow is among several entrepreneurs attempting to break into the fledgling manned commercial spaceflight business.

Bigelow’s balloon was bankrolled to the tune of about $75 million, out of about $500 million dedicated to having an entire fleet of similar modules circling the earth like sausage links. Mars Blog notes that, even allowing for unexpected costs adding up to $3 billion or more, private entrepreneurs might actually be able to get to the point of having manned spacecraft servicing manned space stations faster and cheaper than, say, NASA.

That’s interesting, given that Bigelow’s balloon could lead to hotels and sports arenas in space by 2015, if all goes according to plan. With the price tag for building ’em, though, I can only imagine what the ticket price will be.