Really Rocket Science

Now that we have the two satellite radio companies combined, are we that far off from the two major satellite TV companies trying to merge again? Good question.

Considering DISH Network’s recent subscriber loss, Robert Holmes at TheStreet.com are asking just that:

Dish-DirecTV Deal Won’t Fool Feds

Prompted by the first subscriber losses at a major U.S. satellite-TV provider, Dish NetworkDISH could revive a merger attempt with rival DirecTVDTV, but industry observers say a potential deal will once again be found to be anticompetitive.

Six years removed from failing at a $16 billion tie-up, Dish Network Chairman and CEO Charles Ergen has said market conditions are more welcoming to a deal, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. Ergen has reportedly calculated the potential savings of a merger at up to $2 billion a year, and he also harbors hopes of a potent broadband offering from a combined satellite company — something neither has been done individually.

However, a renewed bid to combine Dish and DirecTV would revisit the same problems that plagued the 2002 attempt — and would once again fail to pass muster with the Federal Communications Commission and the Justice Department, the government bodies that would again examine the merger.

In its October 2002 decision, the FCC said a combination of Dish Network, then under the umbrella of parent EchoStarSATS, and DirecTV, which was then owned by Hughes Electronics, would likely harm consumers by eliminating a viable competitor in every market, creating the potential for higher prices and lower service quality, and hurting future innovation.

Three weeks later, the Justice Department agreed that a merger would reduce competition in markets served by cable, and eliminate it in areas served only by direct broadcast satellite.

"That merger was the first in recent memory that the FCC turned down," says Adam Candeub, an associate assistant professor of law at Michigan State University College of Law, who was an attorney-adviser for the FCC and worked on the 2002 deal between Dish and DirecTV. "That’s something [Dish and DirecTV] would like to correct and would give it another go-round."

The recently approved deal between Sirius Satellite RadioSIRI and XM Satellite Radio has given Dish’s Ergen hope, though, that consolidation among satellite companies would be better received by government officials, especially if both Dish and DirecTV can argue they compete not only against each other but cable and telecom companies, such as ComcastCMCSA, AT&TT and VerizonVZ, which have started bundling television, Internet, and phone services.

However, when going strictly by FCC and Justice comments about both Dish and DirecTV – and about XM and Sirius — Candeub argues that the government bodies would not likely bend to concessions, even if Ergen wants to use the XM-Sirius deal as a blueprint.

"From a market-definition perspective, it’s not clear that the satellite radio market has much to do with the video market," Candeub says. "They’re very different. There are so many various ways to get audio, like AppleAAPL iPods. Arguably, one analysis would not work for the other."

The Journal reported that Ergen, attempting to assuage fears over what a Dish-DirecTV merger would do to the competitive landscape, is willing to peg monthly charges to the lowest fees paid by subscribers in rural regions, where satellite antennas are currently the only way for customers to receive pay-TV options. A cap on prices would be similar to Sirius and XM’s pledge to hold off on price increases for three years after their merger was completed.

Craig Moffett, senior analyst for U.S. cable and satellite broadcasting with Sanford Bernstein, says that a commitment to national pricing is one way to ameliorate the potential for monopoly pricing power in rural markets, although such a move would still not prevent a deal from being labeled anticompetitive.

"These kinds of concessions are commonplace in the FCC … but the test in the [Justice Department] is an objective ‘rule of law’ test," he writes in a research note. "Voluntary a priori commitments such as national pricing plans are therefore generally not considered as relevant when considering whether a merger does or doesn’t meet the letter of the law."

Moffett adds that under the precedent set by Sirius and XM, the two satellite-TV providers would have to prove there was an alternative distribution model for television in rural areas, one that would be a suitable substitute for Dish and DirecTV’s service. One approach would be to wait until TV-over-the-Internet connections are more available to rural customers, although Moffett finds that to be a Catch-22.

"This itself is problematic, inasmuch as TV-over-the-Internet requires a high quality broadband connection, which generally means either cable modem or telco fiber," Moffett says. "The very definition of ‘rural’ to be applied by the [Justice Department] in 2002 presumes that connections of this kind are not available."

Of course, a few variables have changed that arguably could make a deal more palatable for regulators. "When the Dish/DirecTV merger was out there in 2002, there was a Republican majority in the Senate," Candeub says. "Many of those Senate seats were held by Republicans who represent people from big rural states who rely on satellite and who would see higher rates."

In the last six years, though, there has been a shift of political power. While then-FCC Chairman Michael Powell, a Republican, argued that a Dish and DirecTV combination would replace competition with "a regulated monopoly," a Democratic majority in Washington might be more open to regulation of satellite television.

Despite this shift, though, analysts say those pesky laws cannot simply be circumnavigated. "In rural America, a merger would still be two [companies in the field]-to-one. Two-to-one mergers are unlawful under U.S. antitrust law," Moffett asserts. "Nothing in six years has changed."

The New York Times posted a story last night on this topic, based on a WSJ piece:

As Dish Network copes with the first quarterly subscriber losses reported by a major U.S. satellite-TV provider, the company is considering another attempt to merge with DirecTV Group, The Wall Street Journal reported citing unnamed sources.

Dish Network’s chairman and chief executive, Charles Ergen, is considering the first run at a satellite-TV merger since 2001. That attempt was shut down by opposition from federal and state regulators, but Mr. Ergen has been emboldened by the drawn-out but successful union of satellite radio companies Sirius and XM Satellite, the Journal said.

Efforts to reach another deal, such as a sale to AT&T, may be hamstrung by Dish Network’s loss of 25,000 subscribers in the past quarter. Concerns about that shrinking customer base offset news about Dish Network’s 50 percent increase in net income, to $335.9 million, or 73 cents a share.

Hey, you never know.

No, not those games, though we do confess to being fascinated by China’s attempts to mitigate — or at least conceal — its pollution problem as the opening days of the Beijing Olympics approach.

The games we’re talking about are the Commando Olympics in Afghanistan. Defense Industry Daily has a good roundup of the competition that sends our little rocket scientist hearts a-thumping with excitement: the competition between micro portable Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV).

Getting the gold is the U.S. military’s RQ-11 Raven: 

The Raven is a 4.2-pound, backpackable, hand-launched sensor platform that provides day and night, real-time video imagery for “over the hill” and “around the corner” reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition. Each Raven system typically consists of 3 aircraft, a ground control station, system spares, and related services.

As a measure of its success, The 3,000th RQ-11A Raven vehicle rolled of the production line back in March 2006. U.S. armed forces use Ravens extensively for missions such as base security, route reconnaissance, mission planning and force protection. According to the U.S. Army, Ravens were flown for approximately 150,000 combat hours in 2007.

DID notes that th e Raven is "ideal for quick peeks to see what’s on the other side of obstructed terrain – like a city block in Iraq, or Afghanistan’s hills and mountains." It’s small and unobtrusive —  weighing just over 4 pounds, and with a wingspan of just over 4 feet — and has a low noise signature, making it ideal for use by small special forces teams.
 
Furthermore, the Raven is "so simple to operate that one of the best pilots in the Iraqi theater was a cook."

But the Raven is not the only mini-UAV in use by special forces around the world: the British have the hand-launched BUSTER (Backpack Unmanned Surveillance Targeting and Enhanced Reconnaissance), the Australians have the Elbit Skylark,  and the French have the EADS DRAC Tracker.

The Russians are also investing strongly in mini-UAV development:

 Russian aviation firms are taking advantage of cheaper and more reliable new technology to create mini-UAVs for their police and special operations (commando) forces. One such device was recently demonstrated. It was a miniature helicopter, weighing less than 30 pounds, and capable of staying aloft for two hours at a time. Day and night video cameras were carried, and zoom capability was demonstrated. The Unmanned Systems UAV used a laptop based controller. The mini-chopper had a cruising speed of 50 kilometers an hour and a max altitude of 2,000 meters (out of range of most rifles and machine-guns). The helicopter can operate up to 40 kilometers from its base station.

How far can these little birds fly? Last November, a hydrogen fuel-cell powered micro UAV,  the Pterosoar, set a new distance record for craft of its type while only using a quarter of its available fuel.

The Pterosoar flew 78 miles, beating the previous record of 50 miles set in Estonia last year. Since it – consumed only 16 of the 64 grams grams of Hydrogen stored on board in a pressurized hydrogen tank, the aircraft has a potential flight range of 310 miles.

On Saturday, StarTrek’s James Doohan – “Scotty” – made his last space mission. The actor’s ashes went up in Space X’s Falcon 1 rocket, never to return. He was joined by the remains of real-life astronaut Gordon Cooper.

But wait, this isn’t the first post-mortem space mission that the two have made together. Last year, James Doohan and Gordon Cooper’s ashes made a similar journey.

This lost rocket is the third unsuccessful attempt by Space X, which is owned by PayPal founder Elon Musk. Musk is one of many entrepreneurs trying to build a private space industry. This latest failure is a setback, to be sure. But don’t count Musk out:

The most important message I’d like to send right now is that SpaceX will not skip a beat in execution going forward. We have flight four of Falcon 1 almost ready for flight and flight five right behind that. I have also given the go ahead to begin fabrication of flight six…There should be absolutely zero question that SpaceX will prevail in reaching orbit and demonstrating reliable space transport. For my part, I will never give up and I mean never.

I’m moving soon, and as I’m sorting through my old junk, there are still some things I can’t part with. One of them is an old typewriter that I got from my uncle. It doesn’t work anymore, but I can’t quite bring myself to throw it away.

And now, my years of pack-rat behavior may have paid off, because I just found a way to rig up that old typewriter as a new computer keyboard.

You can also check out this page for instructions.

And if you’re looking for some real inspiration, take a look at this sweet custom brass version.

If you don’t already have an old Underwood sitting in your closet, there’s no shortage of manual typewriters on eBay.

I’m moving soon, and as I’m sorting through my old junk, there are still some things I can’t part with. One of them is an old typewriter that I got from my uncle. It doesn’t work anymore, but I can’t quite bring myself to throw it away. And now, my years of pack-rat behavior may have paid off, because I just found a way to rig up that old typewriter as a new computer keyboard. You can also check out this page for instructions. And if you’re looking for some real inspiration, take a look at this sweet custom brass version. If you don’t already have an old Underwood sitting in your closet, there’s no shortage of manual typewriters on eBay.

The satellite industry is getting exciting again, says Scott Greczkowski over at MultiChannel News:

On Monday DirecTV announced that by the end of the year they would be carrying 130 national HD channels and would also be offering 1080p HD moves by the end of the year.

This morning Dish Network played a game of leapfrog with DirecTV by announcing that by the end of the year they will have 150 HD channels and in addition they will be offering customers full 1080p movies in August….

 Dish Network will beat DirecTV to the 1080p race by offering their customers the movies “I am Legend” in 1080 and I am told the quality will be comparable to Blu-ray. Dish Network surprised me by announcing all of it’s MPEG4 HD DVR’s would be upgraded (or “Turbo Charged”) via a software download in August to be able to display 1080p.  I personally thought that in order to see these resolutions a customer would need a new receiver such as the upcoming Dish Network 722k MPEG4 HD DVR that will be available to customers later this year.  This surprise announcement shows me how well thought out the Dish Network receivers really are, as I never expected them to be able to support 1080p resolutions.

In addition, the direct-broadcast satellite operator is debuting TurboHD, three all-HD programming packages. The three TurboHD tiers are: Bronze ($24.99/month for more than 40 channels), Silver ($32.99/month for more than 50 channels) and Gold ($39.99/month for more than 55 HD channels).

Dish said it has the capacity to offer up to 150 HD channels with the July 16 launch of its Echo XI satellite, which Rocco blogged about here.

DISH is calling their rapid move to 1080p "the biggest HD upgrade in history," which follows DirecTV’s assertion just days ago that they remain the leader in delivering HD.  

When the war of words and rhetoric heats up between the two biggest satellite TV providers in the US, you know that will be good news for consumers.

Clay T. Whitehead passed away last week. Former director of Nixon’s Office of Telecommunications Policy, he was largely responsible for completely changing the commercial satcom business the U.S. and Europe. RCA, Hughes, PanAmSat and SES et. al. owe their success to his vision and work.

Excellent obituary by Adam Bernstein in the Washington Post:

Clay T. "Tom" Whitehead, 69, who helped the cable industry flourish by bringing competition to the domestic satellite market in the early 1970s, died July 23 at Georgetown University Hospital. He had prostate cancer.

During the Nixon administration, Mr. Whitehead became the country’s first telecommunications policy adviser and championed free markets in the satellite business. He later revolutionized the way communications satellites were sold — outright to cable providers instead of leasing them to those companies.

Starting in the mid-1980s, he challenged Europe’s state-owned television systems by spearheading the first private Pan-European television satellite system, Luxembourg-based SES Astra. It became one of the continent’s most popular and profitable private satellite systems.

Dr. Whitehead had degrees in engineering and management but little knowledge of communications when in 1970 he was appointed the first director of the old White House Office of Telecommunications Policy. Considered bright and able, he said his chief concern was trying to get the federal government to become "more anticipatory" in addressing rapid technological changes.

During his four years overseeing the office, he sough to demolish the monopoly model that had given tremendous power to large international corporations such as Comsat and Intelsat. He set in motion policies that allowed domestic satellite competitors to succeed, and far more cheaply.

His work had an enormous impact on the cable industry, which because of his efforts could get its own programming channels via satellites to a national audience. Before, that reach was impossible unless a cable channel wanted to lease land lines from the monopoly provider AT&T.

HBO, the Turner cable networks and C-Span were among the key beneficiaries of Dr. Whitehead’s decisions.

Henry Geller, a Washington telecommunications lawyer and Federal Communications Commission general counsel, said Dr. Whitehead "changed the entire landscape of television in the United States and throughout the world" by advocating an "open skies" policy toward domestic satellites.

Geller said Dr. Whitehead "stopped the FCC cold, which was still promoting Comsat as a domestic monopoly. Satellite service became more competitive, allowing such companies as RCA and Hughes to achieve greater innovations more cheaply."

Dr. Whitehead was credited with formulating policies that gave more autonomy to local stations in the public broadcasting system, which was seen by some PBS executives as an attack on the service in large part because of Dr. Whitehead’s early reputation for antagonizing the press.

He called network television news a haven for "ideological plugola" and "elitist gossip." His criticisms extended to the public broadcasting system, which he called a "fourth network" for alleged liberal biases.

He apologized before a Senate committee, saying his own comments "did not serve a very useful purpose."

Clay Thomas Whitehead, was born Nov. 13, 1938, in Neodesha, Kan., and raised in Columbus, Kan.

An early interest in astronomy led him to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he received a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering in 1960 and doctorate in management in 1967.

He was a Rand Corp. economist before joining the Nixon team in 1968 as an expert on budget policies. He also helped create the Office Telecommunications Policy, which was folded into the Commerce Department’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration during the Carter administration.

In 1979, Dr. Whitehead became the founding president of Los Angeles-based Hughes Communications, a satellite-manufacturing subsidiary of Hughes Aircraft Co. His greatest achievement was the Galaxy program of commercial communications satellites, which addressed the needs of a rapidly growing cable television market.

He likened the Galaxy program to a mall with an "anchor tenant," such as HBO. Each subsequent company would buy a piece of the satellite. This approach made enormous profits for Hughes, reportedly $200 million for the 24 transponders on the Galaxy I that launched in 1983.

"I suppose the thing I like to do most is set things up and make them run," Dr. Whitehead had once told the New York Times. He left Hughes in 1983 because he said he tired of working for a big company.

He spent the next two years laying the financial, technical and political groundwork for a $180 million enterprise that became SES Astra.

Some European politicians criticized the proposed system as "Coca-Cola satellite" and dismissed it as cultural imperialism, all to protect their government-run television channels.

"I think we’re seeing wounded national pride," Dr. Whitehead told Forbes magazine in 1985. "There would be more European programming if a large commercial marketplace already existed there."

SES Astra, in which Luxembourg is a major stakeholder, grew tremendously. Its programming is beamed into more than 65 million homes, and its worth was estimated to be more than $1 billion.

A contractual dispute led Dr. Whitehead to sue SES Astra and the Luxembourg government for $600 million. He was consumed by the lawsuit for a decade, until prevailing in 2003. The final agreement was confidential.

Rapid TV News did provide a settlement figure in its write-up:

Unfortunately he spent some 10 years of his life in a legal squabble with SES Astra (and the Luxembourg government) claiming a total of $1.8bn and receiving some €30m as dividend payments in a Court-ordered settlement in June 2002.

And as far as the extent of ASTRA’s reach in Europe*, the number are greater today than they’ve ever been:

• At year end 2007, 117.2 million homes receive audiovisual broadcast and broadband services via ASTRA at 19.2º, 23.5°, 28.2º East or SIRIUS at 5.0º East.
• The ASTRA Group** consolidated its position as the top European satellite fleet for DTH reception.
• By end of 2007, 50.3 million homes receive ASTRA or SIRIUS services directly via satellite. A further 66.9 million homes receive services via ASTRA Group satellites in cable.
• More than 4 out of 10 of all TV homes within the ASTRA Group footprint are now receiving digital services.
• Satellite continues to be the most popular digital reception mode, with a 58% share of the total digital market.
• 81% of all ASTRA satellite homes are digital.

* 35 countries within the ASTRA Group footprint
** ASTRA Group reach includes ASTRA at 19.2°E, 23.5°E, 28.2°E and SIRIUS at 5.0°E

The XM/Sirius satellite radio merger is now a done deal. But north of the border, word is that XM Canada may choose to go it alone:

"XM Canada is in a strong strategic position to maximize any opportunities that arise for the enhanced benefit of our shareholders and
customers," said Michael Moskowitz, President and CEO of XM Canada. "We are now evaluating how best to leverage the FCC’s decision so that we optimize our critical, market-leading advantages, which include innovative partnerships, long-term automotive contracts, steadily increasing retail market share,
superior signal coverage and 130 channels of unbeatable programming. Our aggressive growth strategy is delivering improved financial performance and we are committed to providing the best service possible to our subscribers."

XM Canada has an exclusive Canadian license from U.S.-based XM Satellite Radio.

Meanwhile, the Canadian satellite operators are expanding. First, the upstart Ciel recently announced that Industry Canada has issued them "Approvals in Principle" to develop the following spectrum: Ka FSS at 91°W and 109.2°W; 17 GHz BSS at 91°W, 103°W and 107.3°W; and 12 GHz BSS at 138°W. 

Second, Telesat has issued a "call for interest" from broadcast, enterprise and government customers who might wish to jump on board Telesat’s recent acquisition of six satellite approvals-in-principle for development of BSS and FSS frequencies from Industry Canada. 

Is the rapid expansion of orbital locations to the north too much? Time will tell. DirecTV and DISH Network, for example, are in need of more bandwidth for HDTV expansion. Whoever "bags an elephant" as big as those companies will surely find their investments paying off.

Speaking of Canadian elephants, there’s a nice elephant statue in St. Thomas, Ontario:

Finally — and completing our roundup of Candadian space news — a tiny Canadian satellite will be looking for a different kind of "elephant" — giant asteroids: 

The last time it happened, many scientists say, it killed off 70 per cent of all life on the planet and wiped out the dinosaurs.

But the next time some city-sized chunk of rock comes shooting through space toward the Earth, a team of scientists led by a Canadian intend to find out in time to stop it.

A one-of-a-kind, $12-million satellite mission to be launched by the Canadian Space Agency in 2010 will track at least some of the tens of thousands of large asteroids within striking distance of Earth.

The satellite, called the Near Earth Object Surveillance Satellite (NEOSSat), will give researchers a whole new view of space. Instead of looking for asteroids with large telescopes in observatories, researchers will get to see the skies from the point of view of the satellite — 24-7 data from areas not normally visible from earthbound telescopes.

The satellite, designed to be more controllable than the Hubble Space Telescope, will be able to twist and move in space, giving researchers an unprecedented range of view while tracking moving bodies. 

The spacecraft that may end up saving all of life on earth is being built by Ontario-based Dynacon. 

…well, only if you’re satellite Internet stockholder or junkie. It looks like HughesNet and WildBlue are ready to face off:

HughesNet and WildBlue now are positioned for a head-to-head contest for leadership of the U.S. satellite broadband market, say researchers at Northern Sky Research. Hughes has long held the title of leader in terms of subscriber base, reportedly with more than 400,000 clients, but WildBlue’s rate of growth to date has been faster than Hughes, NSR says.

WildBlue had 300,000 consumer broadband subscribers at the end of 2007 and is said to be growing faster than Hughes. Leading observers predict that market share will be nearly 50-50 by the end of 2008.

And, while WildBlue may be growing faster and offering cheaper entry level rates, HughesNet isn’t ready to concede its top-spot in the industry:

NSR researchers note, however, that the HughesNet Home Plan has a nominal upper download speed of 1 Mbps compared to 512 Kbps for WildBlue’s offering. Comparing higher speed plans, HughesNet’s services on the Spaceway-3 satellite now either meet or beat WildBlue’s offers, NSR says.

And HughesNet sure wanted everyone to know it. Shortly after the Northern Sky Research report was released, HughesNet sent out this press release, titled “HughesNet Feeds the Need for Speed: Subscribers Benefit from Faster Speeds at Same Low Prices.”

For more on the battle, check out the almost-always-informative forums at dslreports. And, in other HughesNet/WildBlue news, WildBlue recently announced a deal that gives WildBlue customers a deal on new Dell computers.

Longtime DIY Friday fans may remember that we’ve provided plans for an at-home weather station before.

So are we repeating ourselves? Running out of ideas? Not really. The previous DIY Friday weather project was pretty sophisticated, relying on a satellite tracker, antenna, and PC-controlled receiver to deliver the forecast to you.

But the folks over at Expert Village have put together a nice video series (aimed at kids) on How to Predict the Weather. Here’s the first episode:

The series inspired us to track down some good family-friendly DIY weather projects. After all, it’s almost August — time to make some memories (not to mention barometers) with the kids before they get back into school.

There are two places we recommend starting.

Disney’s Family Fun has a good set of DIY instructions on building your own weather station, suitable for kids age 6-12: 

Making instruments for a weather station is a great rainy day activity. Weather is on the mind of any kid trapped indoors on a summer day: A rain gauge can be put to immediate use and a barometer is best set up when air pressure is low. To hold everyone’s interest over the long run, you and your kids can set up a weather station and update it each day for a couple of weeks or you can visit the station when big weather happenings are in store….

A basic station starts with a wind vane, barometer, rain gauge, and a maximum/minimum thermometer. If you want a deluxe weather station you can add an anemometer to measure wind speed, a nephoscope to track cloud movement, and a psychrometer to measure relative humidity (directions are in most kids’ weather books).

All of the devices can be built with simple household tools and easily-acquired materials; the barometer, for example,  requires a clear, straight-neck glass bottle, a clear glass jar, some food coloring, and a rubber band.

In other words, even the clumsiest mom and dad can lead their brilliant kids through this project. Or vice versa, as the case often is.

Also check out Franklin’s Forecast for another family-friendly guide to building your weather station.

So check the forecast, find a rainy day, get your tools and materials together — and enjoy a day with the kids. We predict that you’ll have fun.